Anyone who has run a business in Mallorca for more than a year knows the calendar has two halves. What gets less attention, even locally, is how far the Balearic swing sits outside the Spanish norm, and how precisely the monthly data records it. Earlier in this series we argued that the islands need a second industry. This piece sets that argument aside and deals with the economy as it runs today: what the numbers show, when the competition for staff and housing peaks, what the pattern does to cash, and why a company with nothing to do with tourism still ends up planning around it.

What the Swing Looks Like in the Monthly Data

The cleanest measure is Social Security affiliation, which the Ministerio de Inclusión publishes each month as the average number of workers registered on each day of that month. In January 2025 the Illes Balears averaged 480,868 affiliates.¹ In July 2025 the figure was 670,559, the highest the region had recorded up to then.² That is roughly 190,000 more people in registered work, an increase of about 39 percent in six months. The 2025 annual average came out at 584,875, which puts the January workforce more than 100,000 below the year's mean and the July workforce more than 85,000 above it.³

The same months in 2026 were larger again. January averaged 491,750 and July 694,038, a swing of just over 202,000, or 41 percent.⁴ ⁵ August 2026 came in at 693,812, almost level with July, the usual high-summer plateau before the autumn fall.⁶

Set that beside Spain as a whole. National affiliation averaged 21,095,814 in January 2025 and 21,865,503 in July, an increase of about 770,000, or 3.6 percent.⁷ ⁸ The Balearics began the year with about 2.3 percent of Spain's affiliates and supplied roughly a quarter of the country's net gain between January and July. The comparison with the Canary Islands is more telling still, because it shows this is not an automatic feature of island tourism. Canarias averaged 932,421 affiliates in January 2025 and 934,115 in July, a change of 0.2 percent, and July there is a month that sheds jobs.⁹ ¹⁰ Both archipelagos live heavily off visitors; one has a labour market that moves by a fifth of a percent across those six months and the other moves by two fifths of its size.

Visitor arrivals explain the Balearic shape. INE's frontier survey counted 147,620 international tourists arriving in the islands in January 2025 and 2,531,916 in August, about seventeen times as many.¹¹ ¹² Across the whole of 2025 the islands received 15,708,921 international visitors, so August alone accounted for about 16 percent of the year, while January and December together accounted for a little over 2 percent.¹³

Why the Unemployment Figures Hide the Winter

Anyone reading only registered unemployment would conclude the islands barely have an off-season. Paro registrado was 29,560 in January 2025 and 25,386 in July, a difference of about 4,000 people against an affiliation swing of 190,000.¹ ² The explanation is the fijo discontinuo contract. A fijo discontinuo is a permanent employee whose contract is suspended between seasons, and while inactive they can draw unemployment benefit without being counted as a registered unemployed person. The contract was a fixture of Balearic hotel employment well before 2022, and the labour reform in Real Decreto-ley 32/2021 made it the standard vehicle for seasonal work nationally by tightening the rules on temporary contracts.¹⁴ An analysis of Social Security data by Datadista found that in May 2024 about a third of Balearic general-regime affiliates were on fijo discontinuo contracts, and Datadista expected the share to approach 40 percent by July, as it had in 2023; the number in active status swung by about 155,000 between July 2023 and January 2024.¹⁵

The effect on the statistics is large. SEPE's benefit coverage rate, which sets the number of people drawing unemployment benefit against the number of registered unemployed with previous work experience, stood at about 332 percent in the Balearics in January 2026.¹⁶ The Labour Force Survey, which classifies people by what they were doing in the survey week rather than by their registration status, shows the pattern that registered unemployment conceals. In the third quarter of 2025 the Balearic unemployment rate was 5.77 percent, the lowest of any region in Spain.¹⁷ In the first quarter of 2026 it was 13.79 percent, with 91,800 people unemployed, not far from Andalucía's 14.66 percent, the highest of any autonomous community.¹⁸ ¹⁹ Within about six months, the same islands move from the tightest labour market in Spain to one of the loosest.

For an operator this matters because the headline figure a new arrival is most likely to see, the low registered unemployment count, describes the summer far better than the winter. The survey figure is the better guide to how many people are looking for work in February.

Hiring Windows: Everyone Recruits at Once

The practical consequence of a 190,000-person climb is that every employer on the islands is trying to fill roles during the same few months before the season opens. Hotels, restaurants, rental agencies, boat operators, cleaning firms and retailers are all calling back their fijos discontinuos and topping up with new hires in parallel. A software company, an accountancy practice or a logistics firm recruiting for an April start is competing with all of them for anyone with transferable skills, from administrators and drivers to bookkeepers and electricians.

Housing compounds it. Seasonal workers arriving from the mainland and abroad need somewhere to live at the same moment the short-let market is filling for summer. Asking rents in the Balearics stood at 20.13 euros per square metre a month in August 2026 on Fotocasa's index, the second highest of any region in Spain.²⁰ A relocating hire given a May start date is looking for a flat in the worst month to be looking.

The operators who handle this well tend to move their recruiting calendar rather than fight the spring. That means opening searches in autumn, making offers before Christmas, agreeing start dates in January or February, and helping new staff secure a lease while the market is quieter. It also means treating retention in March and April as a line item, since that is when competitors with a season to staff are most likely to approach your people with a summer premium.

Cash Flow: A Year of Costs Against a Season of Revenue

For any business whose customers are visitors, the arrivals data describes the revenue curve. A company that takes most of its revenue between May and October still pays rent, loan instalments, insurance, software subscriptions and the self-employed contribution in all twelve months. Fijos discontinuos make payroll partly variable, which is much of the reason island businesses use them, but they do not touch the rest of the fixed base.

The low point in cash for these businesses tends to arrive later than people expect. December and January are quiet, but the heavier spending comes in February and March, when staff are called back, stock is bought, premises are refurbished and marketing goes out, all before the first meaningful revenue of the season. A plan built on the annual average hides this completely. A plan built month by month shows the trough, and it shows how much of it has to be covered by what was earned the previous summer, by a credit line agreed while the accounts looked healthy in September, or by customer deposits taken early.

For a startup the same arithmetic applies to runway. A Balearic company with tourism-linked revenue that quotes a monthly burn based on the annual average is understating what it will spend in its worst months, and an investor who reads the winter accounts without that context can mistake the normal trough for a company in trouble. Modelling revenue and cost by month is one of the more useful things a founder here can put in front of a lender or a board.

Why a Company Outside Tourism Still Feels It

A company that sells nothing to visitors still operates inside the swing. Talent and rents follow from the sections above, since both are priced by a market that includes summer demand.

Supplier capacity is the channel most often missed. Builders, electricians, installers, printers, transport firms and maintenance contractors are booked solid in the pre-season because their largest customers are preparing to reopen. A fit-out, an office move or an equipment installation scheduled for April will take longer and cost more than the same job in November, if it can be booked at all.

There is also a customer effect for companies that sell to the tourism sector. A hotel group's managers have time and budget to evaluate a new system in the off-season and none once the doors open, so the sales calendar of a B2B company serving hospitality runs roughly opposite to its customers' revenue calendar. Firms that plan their pipeline around this close more in winter and spend the summer on delivery and support.

The Counterpoint: Softer Contracts, and a Winter Hiring Window

There is a case that seasonality is easing. January 2026 was the highest January on record for Balearic affiliation, which means the winter floor keeps rising.⁴ Balearic hiring is dominated by open-ended contracts: in August 2026, 62.5 percent of contracts signed in the islands were indefinite, against 38.5 percent nationally.⁶ And the first-quarter unemployment count in 2026, high as it was, was 4.5 percent lower than a year earlier.²¹

What those figures describe is a change in the stability of the employment relationship. They do not show the activity itself becoming less seasonal. A fijo discontinuo contract is indefinite and still stops every autumn. The January to July swing grew from about 39 percent in 2025 to about 41 percent in 2026, so on the monthly affiliation data the amplitude has not narrowed, even as the base has grown.

The stronger counterpoint is that the off-season is a hiring opportunity for companies outside tourism. With 91,800 people unemployed in the first quarter of 2026 on the survey measure, a year-round employer recruiting in winter is fishing in a far larger pool than it will find in spring, with less competition and more time.¹⁸ The caveat is that a large share of those people are likely to be fijos discontinuos with a right to be called back in a few months, and many will take that option. A winter hire has to be offered something the season cannot match, which in practice usually means twelve months of salary, predictable hours and a route to progression. For a candidate who wants out of the cycle that is a strong offer, and for one who is waiting for the call-back it tends to become a three-month placement.

Where Local Capital Fits

The pattern is familiar to anyone who has operated here through a few winters. That shared context is one of the few structural advantages a Balearic founder has when raising from investors on the islands. Someone who has watched their own business go through the February trough does not need the curve explained and is less likely to misread it.

That is part of why the Balearic Business Angels network exists: to connect capital already on the islands with companies already on the islands, and to put founders in front of investors who understand the operating calendar before the first meeting. For a founder preparing that conversation, the most useful document is a monthly cash plan showing the previous two years' shape, where the trough falls and how it will be funded. It is also the document most likely to be read correctly by someone local.

Sources

1. Economía de Mallorca, El paro baja un 5,03% en Baleares mientras España pierde 242.148 afiliados en enero, 4 February 2025, reporting Ministerio de Inclusión, Seguridad Social y Migraciones and SEPE data. https://www.economiademallorca.com/articulo/noticias-empleo/paro-baja-503-baleares-mientras-espana-pierde-242148-afiliados-enero/20250204115502103721.html

2. Última Hora, Baleares sobrepasa los 670.000 afiliados a la Seguridad Social y el Govern proclama: «Quien quiere trabajar, trabaja», 4 August 2025, reporting Govern de les Illes Balears and Ministerio de Inclusión data. https://www.ultimahora.es/noticias/local/2025/08/04/2443649/balears-sobrepasa-670000-afiliados-seguridad-social-govern-proclama-quien-quiere-trabajar-trabaja.html

3. Mallorca Informa, La afiliación a la Seguridad Social en Baleares alcanza en 2025 su máximo histórico, 5 January 2026, reporting Conselleria d'Economia, Hisenda i Innovació, Govern de les Illes Balears. https://mallorcainforma.com/2026/01/05/la-afiliacion-a-la-seguridad-social-en-baleares-alcanza-en-2025-su-maximo-historico/

4. Mallorca Informa, La afiliación a la Seguridad Social en Baleares marca un récord en enero con 491.750 personas, 3 February 2026. https://mallorcainforma.com/2026/02/03/la-afiliacion-a-la-seguridad-social-en-baleares-marca-un-record-en-enero-con-491-750-personas/

5. Fibwi Diario, Baleares se acerca a los 700.000 afiliados a la Seguridad Social tras sumar 15.843 cotizantes en julio, 4 August 2026, reporting Ministerio de Inclusión, Seguridad Social y Migraciones data. https://www.fibwidiario.com/articulo/economia/baleares-acerca-700000-afiliados-sumar-15843-cotizantes-julio/20260804095019323569.html

6. Mallorca Informa, Baleares lidera la contratación indefinida en España con un 62,5 % del total de contratos, 2 September 2026. https://mallorcainforma.com/2026/09/02/baleares-lidera-la-contratacion-indefinida-en-espana-con-un-625-del-total-de-contratos/

7. Ministerio de Inclusión, Seguridad Social y Migraciones, La Seguridad Social suma en enero 35.000 afiliados en términos desestacionalizados y 501.000 en el último año, La Moncloa, 4 February 2025. https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/serviciosdeprensa/notasprensa/inclusion/paginas/2025/040225-seguridad-social-afiliados-enero.aspx

8. Ministerio de Inclusión, Seguridad Social y Migraciones, La afiliación a la Seguridad Social vuelve a marcar máximos en julio con casi medio millón de afiliados más en el último año, La Moncloa, 4 August 2025. https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/serviciosdeprensa/notasprensa/inclusion/paginas/2025/040825-afiliacion-seguridad-social.aspx

9. Comisiones Obreras Canarias, Coyuntura laboral (Enero 2025), reporting Ministerio de Inclusión, Seguridad Social y Migraciones data. https://canarias.ccoo.es/71cacce4ac265fb673dfa49cf3150338000069.pdf

10. Comisiones Obreras Canarias, Coyuntura laboral (Julio 2025), reporting Ministerio de Inclusión, Seguridad Social y Migraciones data. https://canarias.ccoo.es/6ed4d754548fae482c33fa1625c99939000069.pdf

11. Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Estadística de Movimientos Turísticos en Fronteras (FRONTUR), enero 2025, nota de prensa. https://www.ine.es/dyngs/Prensa/FRONTUR0125.htm

12. Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Estadística de Movimientos Turísticos en Fronteras (FRONTUR), agosto 2025, nota de prensa. https://www.ine.es/dyngs/Prensa/FRONTUR0825.htm

13. Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Estadística de Movimientos Turísticos en Fronteras (FRONTUR), diciembre 2025, nota de prensa. https://www.ine.es/dyngs/Prensa/FRONTUR1225.htm

14. Real Decreto-ley 32/2021, de 28 de diciembre, de medidas urgentes para la reforma laboral, la garantía de la estabilidad en el empleo y la transformación del mercado de trabajo, Boletín Oficial del Estado. https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-2021-21788

15. Datadista, Radiografía del empleo fijo discontinuo y la estacionalidad por regiones y sectores, 16 June 2024, based on Seguridad Social affiliation data. https://www.datadista.com/empleo/radiografia-del-empleo-fijo-discontinuo-y-la-estacionalidad-por-regiones-y-sectores/

16. El Diario de Madrid, Baleares registra un 333% de perceptores de paro respecto a desempleados, 18 March 2026, reporting Servicio Público de Empleo Estatal (SEPE) data. https://www.eldiariodemadrid.es/articulo/economia/baleares-333-porciento-paro-perceptores-estadisticas-desempleo-espana/20260318081825124718.html

17. Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Encuesta de Población Activa (EPA), tercer trimestre 2025, nota de prensa. https://ine.es/dyngs/Prensa/EPA3T25.htm

18. Fibwi Diario, Baleares arranca el año con 39.800 parados más y pierde 40.800 empleos, 28 April 2026, reporting INE, Encuesta de Población Activa, primer trimestre 2026. https://www.fibwidiario.com/articulo/baleares/baleares-arranca-ano-39800-parados-mas-pierde-40800-empleos/20260428170648319459.html

19. Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Encuesta de Población Activa (EPA), primer trimestre 2026, nota de prensa. https://www.ine.es/dyngs/Prensa/EPA1T26.htm

20. Fibwi Diario, El alquiler supera los 20 euros por metro cuadrado en Baleares tras subir un 5,4 % interanual en agosto, 14 September 2026, reporting Fotocasa Índice Inmobiliario. https://www.fibwidiario.com/articulo/baleares/alquiler-supera-20-euros-metro-cuadrado-baleares-subir-54-interanual-agosto/20260914100811325099.html

21. Última Hora, El paro en Baleares cae un 4,5 % en el primer trimestre, 28 April 2026, reporting INE, Encuesta de Población Activa, primer trimestre 2026. https://www.ultimahora.es/noticias/local/2026/04/28/2618317/paro-baleares-cae-primer-trimestre-1.html

Operations

Running a Company on a Seasonal Economy